Spearhead's calibrated mark for xAI is $226B as of 2026-06-10, with an 80% conformal interval of $112B–$457B (illustrative/backtest).

How is xAI's valuation calculated?

The mark blends typed observations from publicly reported events on a disclosed recency half-life; the interval comes from split conformal prediction on walk-forward residuals, widened by staleness. Full methodology: https://pegasusthreesixty.com/methodology

◆ SPEARHEADCOMPANY PAGE2026-06-14

xAI

Name: xAI pre-IPO valuation mark (Spearhead)
License: https://pegasusthreesixty.com/methodology

AI company merged with X Corp in 2025 and combined with SpaceX via share exchange in February 2026; valuation prints are structurally noisy and tiered accordingly.

$226B[$112B – $457B]0.0%

80% BAND · AS OF 2026-06-10 · STALENESS 128D · CONFIDENCE 81% · 2 SOURCES · METHODOLOGY v0.2.0 →

00 / Mark history

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The headline mark and 80% band above are public. Full history, 95% bands, and mark events require Pro. Sign up · See plans. Illustrative / backtest — not investment advice.

01 / Provenance

Every input, with its citation

Marks are derived exclusively from the rows below. Excluded rows are shown for completeness and never enter the calculation.

Observed	Type	Implied valuation	Source	Quality	In mark	Cited
2026-02-02	Secondary print	$250B	CNBC	0.55	INPUT	VERIFIED
2026-01-06	Funding round	$230B	CNBC	0.90	INPUT	VERIFIED
2025-03-28	Secondary print	$80B	CNBC	0.55	INPUT	VERIFIED
2024-12-23	Funding round	$50B	xAI announcement	0.90	INPUT	VERIFIED
2024-05-26	Funding round	$24B	xAI announcement	0.90	INPUT	VERIFIED

This page is a backtest replay of publicly reported events. Indicative valuations, not transactable prices. Underlying assets are illiquid; inputs are limited to publicly reported events with source attribution. Pegasus Three Sixty and SpearHead are an information-only valuation product, do not hold client balances, and do not provide investment recommendations. Reported valuations inherit the share-count basis of the cited articles; bases differ between outlets and are recorded in event notes.