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→ PEGASUS THREE SIXTYSPEARHEAD EVIDENCE PLATFORMVALUATION EVIDENCE PACKILLUSTRATIVE BACKTESTJUN 2026

Quarter-end proof workflow for valuation decisions
without over-promising

Spearhead turns public financing events into a sourced valuation read — a number with a confidence interval, a source link for every input, and a published record of the names we got wrong.

5/5
Evidence dimensions PASS
0/18
Competitors that publish backtests
−1.5%
CoreWeave vs IPO open
6
IPO validations published
Evidence consolesource-linked / review-ready / auditable
01Public sourcesource URL, event type, timestamp
02Structured observationtyped event, source score, normalized fields
03Estimated value80% and optional 95% bands
04Review packetscorecard, misses, and export trail
Best validation read−1.5%CoreWeave vs IPO open
80% band observed80.8%n=47 walk-forward forecasts
See the evidenceStart free checkout
Coverage universe
33 names
Best validated read
−1.5% vs IPO open
80% band, observed
80.8% n=47
IPO validations
6 published
Methodology
v0.2.0
Base path
/v1
Start free checkoutCompare tiersAPI docsData qualityDeveloper guide
DATA: FIXTURE | BACKTEST
00 / Why teams use it

How teams use Spearhead

A private-company valuation number is only useful when someone can replay it. Use this as a quarter-end proof workflow before committee discussion.

Committee-ready workflow
From source to packet in one review cycle

Built for review meetings

Each item is one package: value, range, source evidence, methodology, and a publication trail. No one needs to reconstruct logic during a call.

47 walk-forward observations
Public audit posture
5/5 PASS

Claims are measured, not hidden

Competition disclosure checks, scorecard summaries, and public disclosures are visible in one flow. We only claim what the data supports.

Last audit snapshot: 5 of 5 evidence dimensions on PASS.

Competitive check run: 1781423235, capture period public pages only.
Data marketplace ready
33 names / 2026-06-14

Coverage, samples, and quality in one page

A buyer can inspect delivery method, source counts, validation, sample access, and licensing posture before starting procurement.

Open the data quality card
01 / Validation

Proof-first visualization

CoreWeave, walked forward through public prints: final pre-IPO mark landed within −1.5% of IPO open on that event. See current status in the same panel.

MARK HISTORY80% CONFIDENCE BANDLOOKBACK 502024-05-01 -> 2025-03-27−1.5% VS REALIZED OPENGAP $337M$10B$20B$30B$40B2025Round $19BSecondary $23B2024-05-01 · Round $19B2024-11-13 · Secondary $23B2025-03-28 · IPO open $22.4BMARK $22.1BIPO OPEN $22.4BCHART METRICS$22.1BLatest mark$33.7BCurrent band width (uncertainty range)−1.5% vs reference
CoreWeave mark history with 80% confidence band and public milestone events. Not a live mark. See full case study.
02 / Principles

What we are promising

Every mark is timestamped and sourced

We expose event timestamp, source links, and the uncertainty envelope for every estimate. If you need to question a number, the evidence is already in the path.

We publish the names we got wrong

The scorecard ships the misses — Figma, Cerebras — and keeps them visible. Most vendors only show their hits. Trust is built on the gaps we own, not the ones we hide.

Backtest is clearly labeled

All payloads on this site are replayed from public events. We label this as provenance: backtest. Any live product upgrade will move to a distinct label and the same audit path.

No trading workflow

Spearhead is an information product from Pegasus Three Sixty. It does not offer custody, execution, or financial advice.

03 / How it works

From event to publish-ready packet

Snapshot
Public event is stored with source URL, timestamp, and immutable ID.
Normalize
Public events become typed observations with source quality and model inputs.
Calibrate
The model applies conformal intervals and a documented methodology version.
Publish
Marks are stored in an append-only mark log with revision history.
Validate
Quarterly scorecards publish reliability and coverage statistics.
04 / Coverage

Evidence universe

33 names with marked coverage and interval metadata. Browse full coverage

CompanySectorMark80% intervalDelta 30dStatus
SpaceXAerospace & Defense$818B[$405B – $1.7T]0.0%BACKTEST
OpenAIArtificial Intelligence$765B[$389B – $1.5T]0.0%BACKTEST
AnthropicArtificial Intelligence$322B[$160B – $646B]0.0%BACKTEST
xAIArtificial Intelligence$226B[$112B – $457B]0.0%BACKTEST
StripeFintech$155B[$77.4B – $309B]0.0%BACKTEST
DatabricksData & AI$95.5B[$44.3B – $206B]0.0%BACKTEST
RevolutFintech$74.2B[$35.6B – $154B]0.0%BACKTEST
Anduril IndustriesDefense Technology$58.7B[$30.4B – $113B]+102.1%BACKTEST